UPDATE: Tropical system increasing

The National Weather Service issued a Saturday morning message, which on its face was pretty simple: It's hurricane season. It’s time to review action plans, but not time to get worked-up about the possibility of a tropical system forming in the northern Gulf of Mexico next week. Some computer forecast models are suggesting that possibility. A few models are calling for a system over Missouri to make its way into the GoM and develop into a tropical system. This disturbance will begin to draw deep tropical moisture as it slides into the vicinity of the Northern or NE Gulf of Mexico into Wednesday. The GFS and Euro agree on this scenario through Tuesday, but then the models diverge significantly, according to meteorologist Rob Perillo of KATV. The Euro solution will make a beach trip east of Acadiana (Miss., Ala., and Fla.) later next week/weekend a little uncomfortable with some indoor days and active weather. There could be some high rain chances heading Louisiana's way by next weekend ... and that's why KATV will continue to say the weather and this disturbance into next week "bears watch". (Source: KATC 07/05/19) UPDATE: A trough of low pressure over the southeast is forecast to move toward the NE Gulf of Mexico where the chances for tropical development have increased, the National Hurricane Center said July 7. Through the next five days the probability of the low turning into a tropical system has increased from 20% to 40%. A board low pressure area will likely form in a few days, and, thereafter, upper-level winds support some development.