GoM disturbance upgraded

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has upgraded the disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico to Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. The system is expected to strengthen into a tropical depression or tropical storm by late Wednesday or Thursday; and potentially a hurricane by the weekend. NHC also has issued the first forecast track (the cone of uncertainty). At this time, its track is hard to predict. But the storm has become better-organized and formed deeper into the Gulf of Mexico than initially forecast, which gives it fuel to strengthen. The good news for the Mississippi, Alabama, and NW Florida coastline is that the latest models show the storm swinging more southwestward around the tip of Louisiana before making landfall as a possible Category 1 hurricane near the Texas/Louisiana border. A tropical depression has wind speeds of less than 39 mph; tropical storm 39-73 mph; and a hurricane between 74-110 mph. It’s expected to become a hurricane Saturday morning (July 13) and make landfall near Lake Charles that evening, according to meteorologist Megan Williams with the National Weather Service office in New Orleans. Crown Weather Services indicates the storm is likely to make landfall between Houston-Galveston, Texas, and Vermillion Bay/New Iberia, La., as a hurricane with 80 to 100 mph winds. (Source: Sun Herald 07/10/19) The Navy's Blue Angels' Pensacola Beach, Fla., airshow may be spared cancellation. Stay tuned.